EIA DATA: Gasoline stocks hit 9-month high as US output recovers

11 Jan 2023

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – US gasoline stocks rebuilt last week as exports fell and domestic refineries recovered from severe disruption caused by a winter storm, amid still-subdued demand.

Gasoline inventories grew 1.8% to a nine-month high 226.8 million barrels in week to 6 January, according to the latest EIA data, with builds in every region.

Atlantic coast inventories edged up 0.7% after last week’s near 6% build, reaching a 10-month high 57.3 million barrels, while the Midwest grew 3.4% and the west coast saw a 4% rise.  

Demand edged up 0.6% from last week’s two-year low to 7.6 million bpd, but remains 4.4% down on a year-ago as disruption continues from a severe winter storm that shut-in thousands of residents over the holiday period.

Evacuations have been ordered in California this week because of heavy rain and storms, with 90% of the west coast state currently under floodwatch.

US refinery runs rebounded much faster than implied demand, up 6% from last week’s two-year low to 14.6 million bpd, still around 5.9% below the same time last year.

An 18% fall in exports to 867,000 bpd will have contributed further to higher US stocks, with imports relatively flat on the week at 516,000 bpd.  

High US prices will have kept more gasoline in the country, notional refining margins (RBOB-Brent) hitting 2.5-month highs this week over $17.50/b. 

European gasoline has followed the US higher, which has kept transatlantic volumes relatively subdued. After climbing in the immediate aftermath of the storm, RBOB-EBOB spreads have dropped below $0.20/gal this week on front-month contracts for the first time since November.