Oil futures: Crude rebounds from 5-month lows, Brent above $75.50/b

8 Dec 2023

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures Friday were higher, having rebounded from the previous session's five-month lows, but still heading for another week of heavy losses.

Front-month Feb24 ICE Brent futures were trading at $75.78/b (1935 GMT), compared to Thursday's settle of $74.05/b.

At the same time, Jan24 NYMEX WTI was trading $71.17/b versus Thursday's settle of $69.34/b.

Last Friday, Jan24 Brent closed at $78.88/b, while Jan24 WTI settled at $74.07/b.

Crude benchmarks have still slumped around 10% from the pre-OPEC+ highs after traders were left unconvinced by announced voluntary cuts of up to 900,000 bpd, while concerns over a growing surplus in Q1 also weighed on sentiment.

A joint statement issued by Saudi Arabia and Russia on Thursday calling for all OPEC+ members to enforce output cuts helped to steady markets at the backend of the week, albeit briefly.

"The energy sector remained under pressure amid concerns supply may exceed demand and scepticism over OPEC+ members' resolve to deliver on promised production cuts," said Saxo bank in a client note, adding that Brent trading below $75/b could raise the prospects for an emergency OPEC+ meeting.

US production remains at close to record levels of more than 13 million bpd, while vessel tracking data indicated that US exports could reach 5.7 million bpd.

Oil was dealt a further blow this week as data from the General Administration of Customs revealed China's crude oil imports continued to fall in November, dropping to the lowest level in four months as domestic demand remained sluggish amid a slow economic recovery, while a shortage of export quotas weighed on oil product sales overseas.

The world's largest crude importer cleared 42.45 million mt or 10.33 million bpd in November, down more than 10% month on month and 7% lower compared to the same month last year.

The fall comes as oil product exports out of China fell for the third consecutive month to 5.08 million mt, down nearly 2% on the month and 17% lower on the year.