Atlantic weather system seen developing into a storm, NHC says 90% chance

27 Jun 2022

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - A low-pressure weather system currently making its way across the Atlantic has been given a 90% chance of intensifying into a storm this week, the US National Hurricane Center said Monday, up from the 50% on Friday.

The system, currently designated as Invest 94L, is tracking towards the Windward Islands, north of Venezuela.

“A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days,” the NHC said in bulletin published at 0800 EDT.

The NHC said the tropical depression is likely to form into a storm before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.

The tropical wave was given a 70% of developing into a storm during the next 48 hours and a 90% chance in the next 5 days.

However, most tracking models do not show the likely storm as a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but travelling along the coast of Venezuela before making landfall in central America.

Should the storm survive over land then models indicate it would reemerge in the Pacific, although some storm trackers suggested there is a chance the storm could cross Mexico and reform in the southern GOM. However, tracking a path is notoriously difficult before the storm has event formed.

Storms at this time of the year are typically less threatening, with the more powerful hurricanes usually from August onwards as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (GOM) waters heat up.

In May the US government agency, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, forecasted another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2022.

Hurricane Ida caused havoc for the US oil and gas industry in late-August last year, while the record 2020 hurricane season included storms Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the GOM.