Oil futures: Crude rebounds as Red Sea offsets US stock report, IEA forecast

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures ended Thursday higher after starting on the back foot following a bearish IEA oil demand report and a steep jump in US crude stocks seen overnight. 

Front-month Apr24 ICE Brent futures were trading at $83.18/b (1708 GMT), compared to Wednesday's settle of $81.60/b, and the day's low of $80.72/b.

Should they settle at that level they will be at the highest level for the April contract for three months.

At the same time, Mar24 NYMEX WTI was trading at $78.33/b versus Wednesday's settle of $76.64/b.

Markets steadied after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported the latest attack on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea on Thursday afternoon. 

And a weaker dollar added support with the latest US data showing a sharp slide in January's retail sales. 

That offset bearish data from the US and IEA.

Data from the Energy Information Administration published Wednesday showed crude inventories surged by 12 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels in the week to 9 February, way above analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.6 million-barrel build.

Meanwhile the International Energy Agency stuck with its forecast for demand growth 1.2 million bpd this year, around 1 million bpd below OPEC’s much more robust outlook. “Global oil demand growth is losing momentum,” said the Paris-based-agency.

"I really don’t remember the last time there was such a divergence between IEA and OPEC on oil demand growth forecast," said oil analyst Neil Atkinson and former head of oil markets at the IEA, speaking on Thursday's Gulf Intelligence energy markets podcast.